A switch to alternative proteins could be cheapest and highest impact solution to climate crisis – report

Shifting to alternative proteins could be the “most capital-efficient and high-impact” solution to today’s climate crisis, according to a new report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which suggests more than 30% of consumers are willing to fully swap-out meat.

The report includes a survey carried out with Blue Horizon of more than 3,700 consumers across the US, China, UK, Germany, France, Spain and the United Arab Emirates, quizzed about their reasons for trying alternative proteins and inhibitors which would prevent them from buying more.

Three-quarters of the respondents said a healthier diet was the key reason they sourced alternative proteins, while more than 30% said they would fully switch from animal-based to alternative proteins if doing so would have a major positive climate impact.

The global consultancy said that 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the food value chain, a large part of which is derived from animal-based products.

Previously, BGC has estimated that a shift to alternative beef, pork, chicken and egg alternatives would save more than one gigaton of CO2 equivalent by 2035, “equal to decarbonizing most of the aviation or shipping industries, or about 22% of the building industry.”

“The shift to alternative proteins may be the most capital-efficient and high-impact solution to addressing the climate crisis,” BCG said in an accompanying statement, saving three times the emissions for each dollar invested compared with the “next-best tool in the box – decarbonising cement.”

Chinese and German consumers most willing to pay for alt proteins

The survey also found that consumers in China and Germany were the most willing to pay a similar amount for protein alternatives as they would for animal products.

However, “no consumer in any region is willing to pay a premium for alternative proteins that match meat for taste, texture, and nutrition—a price premium requires value add,” the researchers said.

Meanwhile, the pandemic drove more consumers to opt for alternative proteins, with 50% saying they increased consumption during the period “because of greater health consciousness”.

Lower prices could drive the switch

Other factors driven in part by the pandemic are also driving consumers to switch to alternative protein products, namely “dramatic, above-inflation price increases for animal-based products” throughout Covid-19, which led to an “unprecedented spike in the sales, funding and public awareness of the alternative protein sector.”

In the 2022 survey, 76% of consumers said they are familiar with alternative proteins.

And it seems that growing food prices coupled with food insecurity, in light of ongoing geopolitical pressures, mean continued pressure for the global food system which could see more consumers switching to protein alternates.

“Pivoting away from animal-based proteins will lead to shorter, more resilient, and potentially more local supply chains. Widespread adoption of alternative proteins can remove the risk of supply chain disruptions and play a critical role tackling climate change, with consumers playing a key part in propelling this transition,” said Ben Morach, a BCG managing director and partner.

Upside scenario and decarbonising the global economy

The report’s upside scenario includes a 22% market share for alternative proteins, which would mean decarbonisation of 2.2 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – leading to emissions 4% below the United Nation’s current targets – by 2030.

The researchers assumed that, in a base case scenario, alternative proteins would represent an 11% share of total proteins consumption by 2032, leading to a reduction of 0.85 gigaton of CO2 equivalent by 2030.

“If alternative proteins were to replace the total addressable market of animal proteins with like-for-like alternatives, building on current technology, global emissions would fall by 6.1 [gigaton of CO2 equivalent] —11% of projected current emissions in 2030.”