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Brazil fires destroy crops and drive up sugar prices

A series of devastating fires in Brazil's sugar-cane fields has sparked concerns over the global sugar supply, with potential repercussions for both manufacturers and consumers.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, has been severely impacted by these fires, particularly in São Paulo, the country’s top sugar-producing state. The fires, exacerbated by a heatwave and low humidity, are expected to have far-reaching consequences on sugar production and pricing well into the next year.

Sugar crop damage

The fires burned between 22 and 24 August, destroying around 60,000 hectares of sugar-cane crops in São Paulo, according to the sugar industry group Orplana. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE) recorded more than 3,480 fire spots during this period in São Paulo alone. The fires have caused extensive damage to the roots of sprouting sugar cane, which will likely necessitate replanting and result in a diminished harvest for the 2025 season, in addition to the losses for the 2024/25 harvest.

Two of Brazil's largest sugar producers, Raizen SA and Sao Martinho, have disclosed the initial impact of these fires. Raizen, the country's largest sugar group, reported that about 1.8 million tonnes of its sugar cane, including that sourced from suppliers, have been affected by the fires. This represents roughly 2% of the total expected for its 2024/25 crop. The company has prioritised the crushing of the affected cane to mitigate adverse effects, although the cane must be processed quickly before it loses quality.

Sao Martinho, another major producer, reported that 20,000 hectares of its sugar cane were impacted. The company expects a reduction in industrial efficiency in converting the damaged cane to sugar, estimating a loss of 110,000 tonnes of sugar. However, this will be offset by an increase in ethanol production. Sao Martinho also plans to invest an additional $12.7 million to preserve productivity in future harvests.

Global sugar market already under strain

The fires in Brazil come at a time when the global sugar market is already facing significant challenges. Earlier in the year, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected a 2% decline in global sugar production for the 2023-24 season, largely due to adverse weather conditions in other major producing countries.

El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with warmer ocean temperatures and altered weather patterns, has caused drier-than-normal weather in India and Thailand, reducing sugar yields. In 2023, India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, experienced its driest August in over a century, leading to projections of an 8% decline in sugar production.

As a result of these production shortfalls, sugar prices have been steadily climbing. Raw sugar futures in New York surged by 4.2% on August 26, marking the largest intraday jump in a month. The FAO Sugar Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international sugar prices, reported an increase of 1.9% in June 2024 and a 0.8% increase in July, reversing three consecutive months of decline.

Impact on manufacturers and consumers

The rising cost of sugar is placing additional pressure on food manufacturers, many of whom are already struggling with increased production costs due to higher energy prices and the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Some manufacturers are likely to pass on these costs to consumers, leading to higher prices for sugar-containing products such as confectionery, baked goods, and beverages.

In developing countries, where sugar is a staple ingredient in many food products, the impact of rising prices could be particularly severe. Nigeria, for instance, imports 98% of its raw sugar and is already grappling with soaring sugar prices due to global supply constraints. This has led to significant challenges for local bakers, many of whom have been forced to cut production or close their businesses altogether.

Kenya, which was once self-sufficient in sugar production, now imports 200,000 metric tonnes annually from regional trade blocs. The country has recently doubled its sugar imports in response to declining local production, which fell steadily from June to August 2024. As a result, the price of a 50-kilogram bag of local sugar has doubled, further straining consumers’ purchasing power.

Regulatory changes and market shifts

As prices keep rising and Indian production is increasingly impacted by climate change, India has proposed a significant regulatory change that could affect the global sugar market. The Indian government has suggested lifting a six-decade-old ban on the domestic sale of raw sugar, a move that could potentially reduce the country’s export volumes. This proposal, part of the draft Sugar (Control) Order 2024, is intended to capitalise on the higher prices raw sugar commands compared to refined sugar. The change could also benefit India’s sugar industry by allowing producers to tap into the domestic market

The global sugar market is also witnessing a shift towards alternative sweeteners as manufacturers seek to mitigate the impact of rising sugar prices. The high price of sugar may accelerate the reformulation of sugar-reduced products, as innovation in sweetening solutions continues to evolve.