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US wholesale egg prices plummet, but volatility remains

Egg prices in the US fell sharply in March after supply improved – but risks from avian flu and other market factors keep long-term prices unpredictable.

Wholesale egg prices in the US declined by 39% in mid-March, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s agricultural marketing service, marking a sharp drop from record highs earlier in the year.

The fall follows an easing of supply constraints, as no major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported this month.

For food manufacturers reliant on eggs as an ingredient, the price drop provides some short-term relief. However, uncertainty remains regarding future supply conditions.

If avian flu resurges, supply disruptions could return, pushing prices higher again. Seasonal demand spikes, particularly ahead of Easter, may also lead to short-term price increases.

Why egg prices are so volatile

Egg prices have fluctuated significantly in recent months. In early 2025, prices hit record highs, with some wholesale rates exceeding $8 per dozen.

This surge was largely attributed to avian flu-related supply disruptions, which resulted in the culling of over 50 million layer hens between December 2024 and February 2025.

Other factors also contributed to the increase. Inflationary pressures in 2024 and early 2025 pushed up food prices across the board, but egg prices have risen disproportionately.

Some analysts have pointed to record profits among major egg producers as an indication that companies may have been increasing prices beyond what was necessary to offset production costs. In early March, the US Justice Department began investigating the producers.

Other factors, such as consumer demand, have played a more minor role. The popularity of high-protein diets, such as the ketogenic diet, might have contributed to more demand for eggs, but there is little evidence that this has significantly influenced the price spikes.

Meanwhile, premium egg categories, including organic, free-range, and fortified eggs, have continued to gain market share despite higher costs, though these represent a relatively small segment of the overall market.

In recent weeks, several factors have contributed to the decline in prices. The absence of new avian flu outbreaks in March has led to an increase in egg availability. National inventories of large eggs grew by 8.5% as production recovered, and consumer demand softened following months of high prices.

Is the avian flu risk over?

Despite the decline in cases, experts caution that avian flu remains a persistent threat to egg supply. The current outbreak, which began in 2020, has lasted longer than previous ones, with new variants emerging in wild bird populations.

While large-scale culling has helped to contain the virus, it continues to circulate in migratory birds, increasing the risk of future outbreaks.

The structure of modern poultry farming may also make future outbreaks difficult to control. The industry has selectively bred chickens for high egg production, reducing genetic diversity and potentially increasing susceptibility to disease. Large-scale production facilities, where thousands of birds are housed in close quarters, create conditions that can facilitate rapid viral spread.

Government action to mitigate future outbreaks has been limited. In December, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) introduced stricter biosecurity requirements for farms receiving indemnity payments, including mandatory audits before repopulating flocks.

However, concerns remain over whether these measures will be sufficient to prevent another wave of infections, as previous outbreaks have persisted despite similar containment efforts.

US egg prices remain high compared to global markets

While US egg prices have dropped, they remain significantly higher than in other markets.

According to the European Union’s latest egg dashboard statistics, the average price of eggs in the US was €1,020 per 100 kg in March, compared with €268 per 100 kg in the EU and €187 per 100 kg in Brazil.

Egg prices in the EU have increased by 17.3% year-on-year, driven by higher feed costs and changing regulations around cage-free production. The latest European Commission report shows that class A eggs in EU packing stations were up 3.5% from the previous week and 11.2% higher than last month.