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Calorie decline and claims fatigue: Euromonitor’s 2026 forecast

Major economic shifts and growing consumer uptake of GLP-1s and AI are shaping how – and what – people eat, according to a Euromonitor market analysis.

Declining fertility, ageing populations, slow economic growth, and smaller households – especially in the most advanced economies – are set to affect the food and beverage landscape, Manuel Leckel, business development account manager at Euromonitor, told an audience at Fi Europe 2025.

He highlighted the steady drop in daily calorie intake seen across markets such as Canada, the UK, New Zealand, and Germany. This is occurring in parallel with a reduction in out-of-home eating and impulse purchases, driven in part by inflation and the rising cost of living.

“We’re not even indulging so much anymore,” said Leckel. “Maybe we reached peak calorie for our planet.”

Survey data shows affordability has overtaken taste, health, and other product features in importance.

“If you ask consumers what is important in a product for you, it’s simply the price,” he said.

At the same time, trust in claims is slipping. Since 2021, the number of consumers who say they look for labels and claims has fallen by around 10 percentage points.

“Consumers are just overloaded with claims,” said Leckel. “Every huge organisation is now sustainable, and every product is great and amazing... trust is just fading a little bit.”

Rather than adding more front-of-pack messaging, companies may find more traction with clearly substantiated claims and recognisable ingredients, particularly when aligned with tangible benefits like digestion, energy, or satiety.

GLP-1s lead to lifestyle shifts

One of the most immediate shifts affecting consumption is the rapid growth in the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists such as Ozempic.

This is already affecting multiple categories. Products high in sugar and heavily processed snacks are beginning to decline, while interest in gut health, hydration, portion control, and more functional foods is growing.

Some brands are responding with reformulations. Heinz, for instance, has removed sugar and salt from its ketchup, reworking a product that was previously known for its high sugar content.

Leckel noted that this came as part of a broader move towards products that align more closely with reduced-appetite lifestyles, with some brands even positioning products explicitly as “GLP-1-friendly”.

Renovation through sub-brands and flavour updates

Rather than launching new standalone brands, more companies are focusing on what Euromonitor terms “renovation”: new sub-brands, line extensions, and variants that build on existing brand equity.

Leckel noted that sub-brand launches have increased in recent years, while those of entirely new brands have declined.

This trend is reflected in the types of innovation being brought to market. Format, flavour, and occasion are key axes.

“Most new product launches have one, two, or three of these pillars,” Leckel said, pointing to health claims, flavour innovation, and functional ingredients as consistent features.

In beverages, for example, mango, strawberry, and orange were the most common flavours in new energy drink launches this year. These flavour updates allow companies to refresh product lines and respond to consumer curiosity without extensive reformulation.

AI and limited editions accelerate innovation cycles

Speed to market is becoming increasingly important as trend cycles accelerate.

Limited-edition launches are rising across categories as brands respond to rapid shifts in consumer interest driven by social media.

At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is enabling companies to move faster from concept to shelf.

More than a third of food and drink companies report using AI in product design, up from just 8% two years ago, Euromonitor surveys show. Some of its clients saved six-figure sums in agency and marketing costs by using AI to generate visual concepts and test ideas internally.

On the consumer side, as AI shapes how people find products, traditional branding may lose ground to structured product information.

Leckel suggested that consumers are turning to AI platforms to search for functional foods based on ingredients or health outcomes.

“The brand name, the creativity of a campaign, the retail channel strategy is going to be less relevant,” he said. “People are going to check on ChatGPT and they don’t care which brand it is.”

The future of food and beverage is ‘weird’

Leckel ended with a provocation: perhaps it is time to rethink what food products are meant to be.

Referencing a report from Nestlé suggesting that “weird is going to be the new successful term of products”, he encouraged experimentation beyond traditional category lines.

The success of a soy sauce latte created by Luckin Coffee and China’s largest soy sauce producer that now sells over five million cups a day is one example of what can happen when unlikely formats are embraced.

Other innovations, such as vodka-infused pasta sauces, are finding strong consumer uptake precisely because they break familiar rules.

While not every unusual launch succeeds – a chicken wing-flavoured rum failed to find its audience – there is increasing interest in formats that feel unexpected or even slightly absurd, he said.