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Plant-based foods face uncertain future

Volatility and uncertainty in the plant-based food sector are making innovation and investment vulnerable, leaving manufacturers concerned for the future of their brands and products.

“The plant-based food landscape has faced a difficult two years and, as a small and growing sector, has been acutely exposed to many of the inflationary and cost of living challenges affecting the wider food industry,” Helen Breewood, research and resource manager at nonprofit and think tank the Good Food Institute (GFI) Europe, told Ingredients Network.

Yet, there is hope, as the plant-based food and beverage (F&B) landscape is also characterised by burgeoning diversification and new creations that satisfy consumers’ calls for tasty, healthy, sustainable products.

“The sector is vibrant, innovative, and growing,” Jasmijn de Boo, global CEO of ProVeg International, told Ingredients Network.

A 2024 GFI analysis indicated an upward sales trajectory across six leading European markets. The already well-established plant-based milk category is expanding and some emerging plant-based categories – particularly cream and cheese – are growing. Certain goods are also starting to compete with their animal-based counterparts on price.

Ingredient manufacturers face uncertainty

F&B products once deemed pantry staples are, however, becoming less reliable due to climate change, disease, and supply chain disruptions.

According to market insights provider Mintel, in 2025 alone, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Price Outlook anticipates a 20.3% increase in egg prices.

Worries surrounding egg prices date back to 2023, when early outbreaks of the avian influenza H5N1 strain led to egg shortages. These underscored the food system’s fragility, leaving consumers and businesses vulnerable to unpredictable costs.

Two years later, the sector finds itself even more precarious. The national flock of chickens is smaller than during the Influenza outbreak, meaning egg supply is even more restrained than before.

Plant-based egg products can offer a reliable, cost-stable, and sustainable choice, ensuring continuity in food production and helping to bolster stability in the face of ongoing issues, including fluctuations in feed and energy costs.

“We need to see more examples of innovative public-private partnerships like Denmark’s Pier project,” said Breewood.

Led by Aarhus University with the company Palsgaard A/S and public funding from the Innovation Fund Denmark, the trio is working to develop next-generation ingredients with egg functionality.

Orange yields have decreased by at least 75% over the past two decades in some of the globe’s core citrus regions, like Florida and Brazil. The citrus greening disease is primarily to blame for the reduced orange yields. However, extreme weather like droughts, floods and hurricanes also impact the juice sector.

Cocoa is also a struggling sector, with global production volumes down by 11% in 2024. Due to severe weather, such as the El Niño phenomenon, which has led to crop disease, the continuing effects of climate change are expected to cause even more disruption.

Re-envisioning everyday staples

“Plant-based ingredients are increasingly emerging as a useful option manufacturers can draw upon to strengthen their supply chains,” said Breewood.

Loyalty and interest in these products remain, too. According to Mintel data, as of February 2024, just 4% of US egg consumers thought they would lower their intake. Furthermore, 87% of non-vegan US consumers said they had eaten eggs in the six months up to February 2024, confirming eggs’ place as a staple food type.

Cost is crucial in how plant-based perceptions, manufacturers’ development interests, and consumers’ uptake are evolving. ProVeg predicts that most alternative proteins will likely match conventional products in taste, texture, and price.

To counter market uncertainty, brands need to act. More than half of US consumers perceive eggs as an easy-to-prepare and healthy food. Any alternative ingredients to eggs need to be deemed valuable to consumers by mimicking their key characteristics of affordability, convenience, and health.

“To mitigate supply chain risks, companies need to scale up production of plant-based egg and other foods, ensuring these products can deliver on their potential to provide a consistent supply of affordable and convenient functional ingredients,” Breewood added.