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Food security-insecurity gap grows, hitting vulnerable regions hardest

While food security has increased in most countries, the world’s most vulnerable nations’ struggles continue and intensify, a USDA analysis reveals.

In September, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Global Food Assessment, 2025–35 report, detailing the gap between countries that have achieved enhanced food security and those struggling to gain access to safe, affordable, and nutritious food.

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) defines food security as citizens’ ability to access sufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, and to live an active and healthy life. Food insecurity, therefore, is the absence of these conditions.

In 2025, the WFP’s global outlook estimates that, within the 67 countries where data is available, 319 million people are facing acute food insecurity.

Widespread rise in food security

According to the USDA, food security has increased in most of the 83 countries assessed. The report found that a 3.7% rise in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and decrease in price inflation are leading reasons for this uplift.

Looking at the next decade, the USDA anticipates that food security will improve significantly by 2035, with 332.9 million people projected to be food insecure, representing a 44.9% reduction relative to 2025.

Further improvements to expected per capita GDP growth and a drop in international commodity prices are set to fuel the projected decrease in food insecurity over the next 10 years.

Food insecurity deepens for some

However, it is not all good news. In 2025, approximately 13.5% of the global population – or 604.2 million people – are food insecure across the 83 countries assessed by the USDA.

Those experiencing significant food insecurity are disproportionately concentrated in several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean, particularly Haiti.

“Ongoing political and macroeconomic instability, armed conflict, and weather-related shocks such as droughts are identified as key factors driving worsening food security in vulnerable countries,” a USDA spokesperson told Ingredients Network.

The “food gap” refers to the amount of food that people living in food insecurity need to access to reach the recommended 2,100 kilocalories (kcal) per day.

The food gap – which refers to the amount of food needed for food insecure people to reach the caloric threshold of 2,100 kilocalories (kcal) per day – is projected to rise slightly from 353 kcal in 2025 to 362 kcal in 2035 (a 2.6% increase), primarily due to the disproportionate number of food insecure populations concentrated in the most vulnerable countries.

Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa most vulnerable regions

According to the USDA, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, which form the Caribbean sub-region, are expected to make the least progress in the Latin America and the Caribbean region in terms of meeting food security targets. These countries display vast differences in economic performance and the prominence of food security.

Haiti, for instance, is the poorest country in the area. In 2024, the incidence of severe weather events, food shortages, rising inflation levels, hurdles in financing food imports, and armed conflicts led to displacement and restricted access to food, according to the WFP.

While Sub-Saharan Africa has made improvements to its food security, the region still has a higher estimated food insecure population compared with other countries, making it the area with the highest estimated food insecure population worldwide.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s position is based on its population numbers and relative share, both in the short-term prevalence of food security today, and in its projected longer-term ranking in 2035.

The region’s food gap is also expected to rise slightly to 414 kcal per day in 2025. With its food insecurity rate expected to stay higher than the global average, this suggests the region’s struggle to meet citizens’ food demands.

Grain production vs demand is a core challenge

Over the next 10 years, the global demand for grain is expected to increase by 2.2% per year, hitting a total of 1.4 billion tonnes by 2035. Burgeoning per capita income, especially in Asia and the former Soviet Union, and increasing population numbers, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, are the key drivers behind this anticipated growth.

Despite the projected rise in grain needs to feed these countries, production in Asia, the former Soviet Union, and Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 1.6% annually.

If this projection becomes a reality, it will result in a considerable shortfall in the availability of both food and feed. Robust future planning is necessary to ensure that production output meets demand.