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Seafood set to ‘dethrone’ poultry as protein growth king

Seafood is poised to surpass poultry as the leading contributor to global protein supply growth this year, according to Rabobank’s latest protein outlook.

This year marks a “pivotal moment” for production across various regions and commodities, the Dutch financial services firm Rabobank noted, with “slightly faster” growth than 2024 thanks to aquaculture, wild catch, and poultry. Seafood and pork are expected to move back into growth, though the beef market will contract “reshaping market dynamics and supply chains”.

With the global economy still recovering both policy and macroeconomic conditions could affect demand and access to global animal protein supplies, Rabobank’s experts noted. However, “[t]his more balanced production outlook may just prove advantageous given the uncertainties and complexities on the demand side”.

The authors warned that higher costs are on the way thanks to conflicts and protectionist policies. This will lead to a “complicated” landscape for sustainability rules and initiatives too.

More opportunities in premium protein alternatives for mushroom roots

Those in the alternative meat space will continue to find things tough – the focus will be on more premium products that cater to those seeking healthier, less processed options, and new ingredients like mushroom roots.

In 2025, Rabobank expects the protein alternatives industry to continue to focus on establishing a “solid niche” rather than its initial “very high ambitions of capturing a significant share of the total protein market”.

The outlook for the protein market is certainly mixed this year, with production in Brazil set to fall 1%, driven by a 5% drop in beef. China will bounce back from a contraction last year, though only to 0.4% growth, while production in the Oceana region will remain similar to 2024. A slowdown is expected in North America, the EU, and Southeast Asia.

Global protein production is expected to increase by nearly 6 million metric tonnes in 2025 compared to 2024. “The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for production across various regions and commodities,” said RaboResearch senior protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

“Overall production is set to grow slightly faster than in 2024, driven by aquaculture, wild catch, and poultry. Seafood and pork are expected to transition from contraction to growth, while beef will move from growth to contraction, reshaping market dynamics and supply chains,” he added.

Fish is flying as salmon leaps forward

The shift in protein mix predicted in this year’s report has caught the eye, with aquaculture and wild catch to “dethrone” poultry as the growth leader.

Poultry production’s steady growth will continue in 2025, as it has done for the past decade. However, aquaculture and wild catch are both projected to see strong growth of 2.3% year-on-year, following 2024’s 0.3% decline.

The elevated costs of salmon last year are expected to “soften”, attracting price-conscious consumers to this “relatively affordable” protein when compared to other higher-priced proteins. However, the analysts caveat their 3% to 4% year-on-year growth forecasts given the “considerable biological issues”, like sea lice and lower sea temperatures, that continue to plague the salmon industry, especially in Norway, the world’s largest producer.

Biological issues and political decisions add to uneasy protein market

There are biological issues affecting other parts of the protein market, too. The highly pathogenic avian influenza remains the primary risk for poultry due to its “disruptive potential and low predictability”, Rabobank noted. The outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Hungary has also sparked widespread concern, and the protein industry will have to increasingly adopt vaccines, genetics, and technologies like artificial intelligence to better manage and control animal disease, said Rabobank’s experts.

These pressures all add to the uneasy landscape. “Although inflationary pressures have been easing, policy decisions [including protectionist measures and tariffs] could reverse this trend, potentially weakening consumer demand if incomes do not rise accordingly,” said Rabobank.

Politics will also have a part to play in the development of sustainability initiatives. Livestock protein is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss.

“Legislative action on sustainability is an emerging trend for animal protein supply chains, but political influences and implementation delays make policy developments hard to predict,” the authors noted, citing the case of delayed compliance to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) as well as the lack of consensus on credible nature and biodiversity metrics which threaten to stall land and water commitments under the Science Based Targets Network (SBTN).