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‘Urgent gaps’ in achieving 2030 food system goals

Global food systems are failing to meet 2030 targets across indicators including health, environment, and resilience, according to a report co-authored by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

“The Food Systems Countdown Report 2026: Assessing Performance, Driving Change”, published in Nature, is co-authored by The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Swiss-based foundation Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), Cornell University and Johns Hopkins University, under the global interdisciplinary research collaboration, The Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI).

At a glance:

• Greenhouse gas emissions from food production are 75% away from targets, with no country on track to meet goals at current pace.
• Only Europe and Asia show progress toward benchmarks; Africa and Americas lag behind, requiring urgent accelerated global action.
• The assessment re-emphasises the need to accelerate progress on food system transformation, prioritising and bundling policies, say authors.

The FSCI said the report represents the most comprehensive performance assessment of food systems to date, covering 197 countries and 44 indicators across five themes: diets, nutrition and health; environment, natural resources and production; livelihoods, poverty and equity; governance; and resilience.

“What makes this countdown paper different is that it doesn't just tell countries whether they're moving in the right direction – it tells them how far they still have to go, and against a benchmark that's actually within reach,” said Bianca Carducci, lead author and postdoctoral research scientist at New York's Columbia Climate School. “That distinction between tracking trends and measuring performance is what turns a monitoring exercise into a tool for accountability,” Carducci said.

Food system transformation ‘off track’

Findings suggest that for most global food system indicators across health, environment, livelihoods, governance, and resilience, a vast majority of countries will not meet the internationally agreed 2030 goals. Only one indicator – mobile phone subscriptions which is considered a proxy for connectedness and resilience – has been met by most countries, according to the report.

The indicator 'greenhouse gas emissions from food systems' has “one of the largest” progress gaps, the report shows, with the global average 75% away from the target and no single country set to meet the target at its current pace.

Emissions from beef and milk production are improving globally but emissions from cereal and rice production remain unchanged. Report authors said global progress will require annual reductions across all categories exceeding 60%, which will be challenging even for 2050. The global fisheries health index also remains off target.

Under the environment indicator, global pesticide use is also trending unfavourably. Nitrogen use efficiency and food product yields, however, are moving in a desirable direction, globally.

For health, ultra-processed food sales are trending unfavourably, as is the cost of a healthy diet globally. The number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity is also moving in the wrong direction. Access to safe water and availability of fruit and vegetables, however, is improving and the prevalence of undernourishment and ability to afford a healthy diet are trending favourably.

Within livelihoods, many indicators lack sufficient data to measure change but rural unemployment and under-employment remain unchanged as does the share of a gross domestic product (GDP) from agriculture.

Under governance, public access to information is improving globally and the perceived effectiveness of governments is trending in a desirable direction. By contrast, the perceived accountability of governments is lowering as is the level of participation in civil society organisations.

For resilience, the diversity of pathways through which food reaches consumers is improving, thus lowering exposure to disruptions and food supply variability. Food price volatility, however, remains unchanged globally, as does the cost of all damage from natural disasters. The percentage of agricultural land containing a sufficient diversity of species, which helps cope with shocks and changes, also remains unchanged.

“Our assessment re-emphasises the need to accelerate progress on food system transformation, prioritising and bundling policies, interventions and innovations that will affect those indicators where progress is most off track, such as food affordability, food insecurity, emissions, food price volatility, and child labour – although which indicators to target most urgently will vary by context owing to local priorities,” the authors wrote.

Governance challenges and a shared global push

Mario Herrero, corresponding author and professor at Cornell University's Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment, said accountability for food systems transformation required “accelerated progress”.

“Without it, efforts risk becoming performative rather than transformative. We can no longer afford to continue at the present pace,” Herrero said.

According to the report, the governance behind food systems transformation is an area of concern. Study findings suggest that government effectiveness and accountability in Africa, the Americas and Asia, for example, “will be very challenging” when working to meet 2030 targets and benchmarks.

Addressing governance, the authors said, will “probably require implementing equitable and inclusive multistakeholder processes, as well as horizontal and vertical coordination across national and subnational governments.”

Lawrence Haddad, executive director of GAIN, said that whilst governance indicators, including government effectiveness, accountability, and civil society participation, were key to progress, they remained just one aspect of a wider picture of “shared responsibility”.

“They are the enablers,” Haddad said. “Improving them unlocks progress across the entire system.”

Globally, across all indicators, Europe, followed by Asia, has the most indicators with a regional mean distance less than 25% away from any global target or global benchmark, report findings show. The authors said this suggests these regions are “closer to achieving targets”. By contrast, Africa and the Americas display the fewest indicators close to global targets.

The urgent need for transformation, therefore, requires “more concerted, created and accelerated action from the global community”, particularly when working to recommitments for 2050 targets.

“The outlook improves considerably for 2050 across most thematic areas and regions: most targets are achievable across at least some regions and some are achievable across all regions,” the authors wrote. “This finding, however, hinges on maintaining a steady momentum from this moment forward. Delayed or inconsistent action would leave us approaching 2050 still facing the same unattainable targets as we do today.”